USDA Retail Market Outlook and Grocery Report — October 2026
Prices easing across several key categories. Buyers may find favorable conditions in dairy and ground beef.
National Weekly Retail Activity Reports
Beef (pdf) Chicken (pdf) Dairy (pdf) Eggs (pdf) Pork (pdf) Turkey (pdf)Latest average U.S. retail prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
| Item | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Eggs (Grade A, Large), per dozen | $2.27 | |
| Chicken (whole), per lb | $2.06 | ▲ $0.05 |
| Ground Beef (100%), per lb | $6.79 | ▼ $0.13 |
| Bacon (sliced), per lb | $6.76 | ▲ $0.15 |
| Milk (whole), per gallon | $4.11 | ▼ $0.12 |
| Ground Chuck (100%), per lb | $6.48 | ▼ $0.29 |
USDA Daily Market Reports — October 2026
Daily wholesale market news across the protein complex — the cash trade traders watch each day.
National Daily & Weekly Market Reports
Boxed Beef Cutout (pdf) Cattle & Beef Summary (pdf) National Pork — FOB Plant (pdf) Chicken & MSC (pdf) Turkey (pdf) Shell Egg Index (pdf)
TGFC Market Report Q4
Our read on the grind & blend complex for the fourth quarter of 2026. The complex splits into a cheap tier (chicken MSC/MDM, beef fat 50s) and a high-priced lean tier (domestic & imported 90s, LFTB). Into year-end the cheap tier retests its lows while lean stays historically expensive — so Q4 is about buying the cheap tier in the troughs and covering lean forward.
| Component | Q4 ’26 Bias | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| Beef 90s — domestic lean | ▲ Tight | Record-tight on the herd rebuild; high but choppy as demand destruction & imports cap the top |
| Imported 90s | ▼ Softer | Off the ’26 peak; Brazil tariff reshuffle & Aussie values sliding pressure lean into year-end |
| LFTB / textured beef | ▲ Bid | Cheapest way to add lean in a tight market; new “ground beef” labeling supports demand |
| Beef 50s — fat trim | ▼ Retest lows | Plentiful off heavy carcasses; retests lows into October, bases late Q4 |
| Chicken MSC | ▬ Basing | Cheapest protein, soft/supply-led (~24–25¢); carves a bottom late Q4 before H1 ’27 firming |
| Cross-protein | ▲ Share gain | Expensive lean beef keeps MSC/MDM bid in blends & further-processing |
Bottom line — the grinder’s Q4 playbook: buy the cheap tier (50s, MSC) into the October trough and as it bases late in the quarter, cover high-priced lean (90s, LFTB) forward, and lean on imported lean as the pressure valve — setting up for the H1 2027 firming.